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This book explores cognitive bias and the human condition of estimation. It unpacks the fallacies and illusions we have created around the estimate. It looks at Why we estimate, Why estimates are correct and why they are wrong. But importantly it presents an alternative.

The world is changing faster than ever, and here we are still doing ritualistic, ceremonial things not because they are good or valuable, but because that’s just the way its always been done.

Estimations is one of these embedded ideas, ubiquitous in the human operating system, in business, in management. It is taught in every discipline from business to garbage collection. Our children cry, “When will be there?”. We ask, “How long will it take?” and we can imagine no other way of doing things.

What if I showed you, the illusions, like when your eyes deceive you? What if, just as your vision can so easily be tricked, your mind has been tricked into believing falsehoods and fallacies.

What if estimations are not decreasing risk, but instead they are increasing them?

What if estimations were anti-collaboration? What if estimations were subjectively viewed as just what we do, but objectively was an illusion of control and certainty. The illusion is so powerful, you confabulate and justify it, even when estimations have proved to be wrong.

Preface

Why do we estimate?

Top Down

Professional

Accountability

Planning

But we have a deadline

But we need to manage expectations

Risk management

Organised

No details

Why are estimates correct?

Falsehoods

False Memories

Luck

Enough Padding

Predictable

Making it fit

Why are estimates wrong?

Change

Expectations

Predictions

Cognitive Load

Unknowns

Inexperience

Biases

Topics not directly covered.

Shared effort

Omittance

Quality Discovery

Fixation

Sunk cost

Availability

Anything else?

Unpacking alternatives

Shift from Estimation to Discussion

Constraint-Based Planning

Adaptive Delivery

Shared Risk and Accountability

Rejecting illusions

Rethink Success

How AMMERSE can play a role

Risk

Being late

Conclusion

Estimations are not collaborative

Stochastic vs Determinism

What do we lose?

Will things change?

A. Do projects fail?

B. AMMERSE Summary

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Table of Contents

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