- Thriving in Turbulence
- Foreword by Giles Lindsay
- Preface
- Why This Book, Why Now
- The Gap We’re Filling
- CIRCA-CLEAR: The Missing Recipe
- What Makes This Different
- Why Now
- Who This Book Is For
- Introduction: The Gap We’re Filling
- Why This Book Exists
- Why “ThroughFlow”?
- The Monday Morning Problem
- Why Frameworks Fail Without Diagnosis
- What This Book Will Teach You
- What We’re NOT Claiming
- How to Use This Book
- What This Book Won’t Teach You
- When Framework and Instinct Conflict
- Final Guidance
- PART I: UNDERSTANDING TURBULENCE
- Why Part I Matters
- What You’ll Learn
- What You’ll Be Able to Do
- The Foundation Matters
- Chapter 1: What is Organisational Turbulence?
- Executive Summary
- Turbulence vs. Difficulty
- The Three Observable Drivers
- When Three Factors Combine
- Your Primary Signal: ThroughFlow
- Why Traditional Responses Often Amplify Turbulence
- Chapter Summary
- Bridge to Chapter 2
- Chapter 2: The Cost and Opportunity
- Executive Summary
- The Cost Structure of Turbulence
- The Human Ledger
- The Throughput Collapse Mechanism
- Hidden Cost Categories
- The Intervention Window
- The Opportunity Side
- Chapter Summary
- Bridge to Chapter 3
- Chapter 3: From Sensing to Steering - The CIRCA-CLEAR Operating System
- Executive Summary
- Executive Focus: What You Must Own
- The CIRCA-CLEAR Architecture
- The Five CIRCA Conditions: Pattern Recognition
- The Five CLEAR Levers: Tactical Response
- Why Single-Lever Discipline Matters
- Cadence Design: The Four Essential Elements
- Signal Tracking: Why Both Metrics Matter Equally
- Your First 12 Weeks: Rhythm Establishment
- Chapter Summary
- Bridge to Part II
- PART II: QUICK START (PRE-TEST EXPERIENCE)
- Why Part II Matters
- Chapter 4: Quick Start - Your First 25 Minutes
- Start Here If You Need Results Today
- The Pattern Recognition Table (adapted from 3-column version in Appendix A)
- Your 25-Minute Diagnostic Session
- Your Two-Week Test Cycle
- Learning From “Failure”
- Common Mistakes and Recovery
- What Success Actually Looks Like
- Chapter Summary
- Bridge to Part III
- PART III: RECOGNISING THE FIVE CONDITIONS
- Why Part III Matters
- What Each Chapter Delivers
- Time Investment and When to Read
- How to Use Part III
- Chapter 5: Recognising Complex Conditions + Learning Lever
- Executive Summary
- Complex vs. Complicated: The Critical Distinction
- Observable Indicators of Complex Conditions
- Combination Patterns: When Multiple Indicators Appear
- What Complex Conditions Are NOT
- Why Standard Responses Fail
- The Learning Lever: Systematic Response
- Chapter Summary
- Bridge to Chapter 6
- Chapter 6: Recognising Insecure Conditions + Empathy Lever
- Executive Summary
- Insecure vs. Poor Communication: The Critical Distinction
- Observable Indicators of Insecure Conditions
- What Insecure Conditions Are NOT
- Why Standard Responses Fail
- The Empathy Lever: Systematic Response
- The 16-Week Implementation Timeline
- Chapter Summary
- Bridge to Chapter 7
- Chapter 7: Recognising Rapid Conditions + Resilience Lever
- Executive Summary
- Rapid vs. High-Ambition: The Critical Distinction
- Observable Indicators of Rapid Conditions
- What Rapid Conditions Are NOT
- Why Standard Responses Fail
- The Resilience Lever: Systematic Response
- The 12-Week Implementation Timeline
- Chapter Summary
- Bridge to Chapter 8
- Chapter 8: Contradictory Conditions + Clarity Lever
- Executive Summary
- Contradictory vs. Poor Prioritisation: The Critical Distinction
- Observable Indicators of Contradictory Conditions
- What Contradictory Conditions Are NOT
- Why Standard Responses Fail
- The Clarity Lever: Systematic Response
- The 12-Week Implementation Timeline
- Chapter Summary
- Bridge to Chapter 9
- Chapter 9: Recognising Anxious Conditions + Agility Lever
- Executive Summary
- Anxious vs. Appropriate Caution: The Critical Distinction
- Observable Indicators of Anxious Conditions
- What Anxious Conditions Are NOT
- Why Standard Responses Fail
- The Agility Lever: Systematic Response
- The 12-Week Implementation Timeline
- Chapter Summary
- Bridge to Chapter 10
- Chapter 10: When Conditions Layer - Recognizing Combination Patterns
- Executive Summary
- The Reality of Condition Combinations
- Three Types of Condition Interactions
- Common Combination Patterns
- Diagnostic Framework for Combinations
- Intervention Conflicts to Avoid
- Lever Calibration for Combinations
- Chapter Summary
- Bridge to Part IV:
- PART IV: DIAGNOSTIC PRACTICE
- Why Part IV Matters
- What Each Chapter Delivers
- Which Chapter to Use
- Time Investment and When to Read
- Bridge to Chapter 11:
- Chapter 11: The 25-Minute Team Diagnostic
- Executive Summary
- The Three-Question Process
- What Breaks When This Goes Wrong
- Real Implementation Example: Platform Team
- Chapter Summary
- Bridge to Chapter 12
- Chapter 12: The 3-Hour Rigorous Workshop
- Executive Summary
- When to Use This Approach
- The Five-Stage Workshop Structure
- What Breaks When This Goes Wrong
- Real Implementation: Executive Team Workshop
- Chapter Summary
- Bridge to Part V
- PART V: BUILDING ORGANISATIONAL CAPABILITY
- Chapter 13: Building Organisational Resilience—-From Reactive to Proactive
- Chapter 14: Integrating CIRCA-CLEAR with Existing Frameworks
- Continue the Journey
- Chapter 13: Building Organisational Resilience - From Reactive to Proactive
- Executive Summary
- The Escalation Trap
- Four Components of Institutional Resilience
- The 18-Month Roadmap
- Complete Journey: Platform Team Transformation
- Your Next 90 Days
- What This Isn’t
- Chapter Summary
- Bridge to Epilogue
- Bridge to Chapter 14: Augmenting Your Existing Frameworks
- Chapter 14: Augmenting Your Existing Frameworks
- Executive Summary
- The Meta-Framework Position
- Universal Integration Architecture
- Framework-Specific Integration Patterns
- Your First Integration (Weeks 1-4)
- Common Integration Failures and Recovery
- What Success Looks Like (Month 6)
- Chapter Summary
- Bridge to Epilogue
- Epilogue: Thriving in Permanent Turbulence
- From Tool to Thinking
- The Limits of Pattern Recognition
- The Individual Practitioner’s Journey
- The Organisational Capability Journey
- Three Observable Transitions Marking Progress
- What Prevents Organisations from Reaching Maturity
- The Ultimate Destination: Distributed Wisdom
- Recognising Limits: When CIRCA-CLEAR Isn’t the Answer
- Leadership Transitions and Sustainability
- What Comes Next: Books Two and Three
- Final Perspective: The Choice Ahead
- Thriving, Not Just Surviving
- About the Author
- Appendix A: Start Here - The Practice Kit
- A1. The 5-Minute Entry Diagnostic
- A2. Pattern Recognition Table
- A3. The 25-Minute Team Diagnostic
- A4. One-Page Experiment Template
- A5. Weekly Signal Dashboard
- Using These Tools Together
- Appendix B: Measurement Toolkit
- B1. ThroughFlow Tracking Template
- B2. Human Pulse Survey
- B3. Combined ThroughFlow + Human Pulse Dashboard
- B4. Pattern Library Entry Template
- Measurement Summary
- Appendix C: Intervention Playbooks
- Playbook Philosophy
- C1. Clarity Playbook
- C2. Learning Playbook
- C3. Empathy Playbook
- C4. Agility Playbook
- C5. Resilience Playbook
- Playbook Summary
- Appendix D: For Consultants & Coaches
- D1. Communication Patterns: Five Difficult Conversations
- D2. Engagement Scoping Guidance
- D3. When CIRCA-CLEAR Is The Wrong Tool
- D4. Framework Integration Quick Reference
- Appendix E: Comprehensive Question Set for Key Audiences
- E1: For CxOs & Executives
- E2: For Transformation Leads & Change Practitioners
- E3: For Consultants & Coaches
- E4: Cross-Cutting Questions For All Audiences
- Using These Questions
Thriving in Turbulence
Diagnose Conditions. Apply the Right Lever. Build Capability.
When the world goes beyond VUCA and BANI, leaders don’t need another framework - they need Monday-morning moves. Thriving in Turbulence introduces CIRCA-CLEAR, a meta-framework that helps you rapidly diagnose the turbulence you’re in and run 2-4 week responses that restore flow, reduce escalation, and make everything you already do more context-aware. Pattern recognition for leaders under pressure: decode complexity, restore flow, repeat.
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About
About the Book
Your teams know something's wrong. They just can't name it.
Four competing priorities. No decision rights. Delivery stalled. Another all-hands about “alignment”. Your best people are quietly disengaging.
You’ve tried frameworks, read the books, and hired consultants. Still, every quarter brings the same fire drill - and the same pattern you can’t quite diagnose.
VUCA and BANI told you the world is volatile and brittle. VUCA Prime and Positive BANI suggested postures. None gave you Monday-morning moves.
The real gap isn’t naming turbulence. It’s the operational bridge between diagnosis and action.
CIRCA-CLEAR delivers precision pattern recognition under pressure.
CIRCA (Complex, Insecure, Rapid, Contradictory, Anxious) helps leadership teams diagnose the real problem in hours, not weeks. CLEAR (Clarity, Learning, Empathy, Agility, Resilience) turns that diagnosis into 2–4 week tactical responses, not stalled quarterly plans.
The result: teams that diagnose their own conditions, choose their own responses, track simple signals - and restore flow without heroic intervention.
Not another maturity model. Observable patterns you act on today.
Not another culture deck. Tactical moves with testable outcomes by Friday.
Not another playbook. A meta-framework that makes your existing tools context-aware.
Start Monday with observation. Know by Friday if it worked. Build capability that compounds.
Pattern recognition for leaders under pressure - the missing bridge between naming turbulence and navigating through it.
Author
About the Author
Neil Walker
Neil Walker didn't set out to become the person organisations call when transformation stalls. His professional journey began as a practitioner solving operational problems, but four decades navigating enterprise turbulence taught him a fundamental truth: the hardest challenges aren't technical - they're pattern recognition under pressure.
For over 30 years, Neil has been the strategic trouble-shooter leadership teams call when escalations multiply and established frameworks fail. His career spans from architectural trouble-shooter in technical environments (from the Bank of England to UBS), to recovering sprawling programmes (from Barclays to Unilog, now CGI, and across UK Government), to coaching startups and strategic ventures through scaling walls.
His expertise in systems thinking, flow dynamics, organisational development and change led to CIRCA-CLEAR, a proprietary diagnostic framework born from hundreds of real-world interventions. Neil has turned around struggling business units while overseeing P&Ls of up to £40M and architecting broader transformation initiatives in parallel. His documented outcomes include annual value swings of £25M back to the bottom line, £15M cost reductions delivered in six months, 75% time compressions on complex deliverables, and commercialised IP commanding deal sizes up to £5M.
Neil's approach is refreshingly unsentimental: diagnose the specific turbulence pattern, apply the appropriate lever, and measure what actually changes. No heroic narratives - only systematic navigation of the chaos every leader faces.
A sought-after consultant, Neil has dedicated his career to helping leaders navigate turbulence with honest, practical guidance. He has worked with thousands of leaders across continents. He lives in Staffordshire, England, where he can occasionally be found Halfbiking (a stand-up pedal-powered transport), walking his labradors in the Peak District, or using the quiet time to notice emerging patterns.
Contents
Table of Contents
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